16 Ways to Prepare for the Next Recession

Why are people more afraid of flying than driving, even though car wrecks are more frequent? As one academic explains, “in a car, at least I know when to brake. In a plane, I have no control.”

Continue reading

The Odds of Success: Monte Carlo Analysis and Your Portfolio

If there’s one question on every investor’s mind, it’s probably some version of this: “How am I doing so far?” This question is especially relevant when you’re making plans to retire or pursuing other substantial financial goals.

Continue reading

Why Market Timing Doesn’t Work

It’s certainly understandable if the economic uncertainty unfolding in the daily news has left you wondering – or worrying – about what’s coming next. No matter what you think about the U.S. entering into a trade war with China, it’s hard to deny that the prospect is currently causing considerable market turmoil.

Continue reading

The Viability of the Value Premium, Part 2: The Long Perspective

In part 1 of this series, we examined the value premium’s origins and proposed that evidence-based investors are well-advised to keep the faith on value investing, giving due consideration to how it meshes with their personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

Still, a decade is a long time to tolerate disappointing numbers while awaiting an expected reward. For many of us, our children are about the only other misbehaving “investment” we would put up with for that long.

However, we prefer to consider value stock performance over a decade or more, since the expected outperformance can go into hiding for years, and often has.

Continue reading

The Viability of the Value Premium: Part 1

If you’ve been an evidence-based investor for a while, you know the drill. You’ve already built a low-cost, globally diversified portfolio to help you achieve your personal goals. You’ve done so by tilting your portfolio toward or away from empirically-tested long-term sources of expected returns – and their risks. When those risks arise, if your goals haven’t changed, neither should your portfolio.

Continue reading